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Author Topic: FCC License Counts  (Read 843642 times)

N2EY

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1185 on: August 26, 2022, 06:49:01 PM »

Still dropping.   Dropped below 35000 Advanced. Of course they will drop to zero in a few years.

Couple of things to consider:

1) Over a million Americans have died from C19 in the past 2.5 years. At least some of them were hams. If just 0.2% of Americans are hams, that works out to 20,000 dead amateurs from C19.

2) The new fees have caused more than a little confusion and delay in renewals. Note that the numbers posted do not include licenses in the grace period.

3) C19 has impacted VE sessions and similar activities that license newcomers.

As for Advanceds dropping to zero - it has been well over 22 years since FCC stopped issuing new Advanced licenses. When the last new Advanced was issued in 2000, there were about 100,000 of them.

Anybody with an Advanced today has renewed that license at least twice since April 2000. Many have been renewed three times in that period. And that's not counting vanity call applications.

It will probably be many more years before the last Advanced disappears.
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N2EY

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Re: RE: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1186 on: August 26, 2022, 06:51:36 PM »

From http://www.arrl.org/fcc-license-counts

the number of current unexpired FCC issued amateur licenses held by individuals on August 25, 2022 was:

Novice:                    6,464      (0.8%)
Technician            390,645     (50.6%)
Technician Plus               0       (0.0%)
General                186,235     (24.1%)
Advanced               34,985       (4.5%)
Extra                    154,386     (20.0%)

Total                    772,715

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

No new Novice or Advanced licenses have been issued since April 2000. However, the totals for those classes may sometimes show an increase over prior numbers due to renewals in the grace period.

This is not a new all-time high. It is provided to avoid a large gap in the timeline.

The all-time high total of 780,526 occurred November 24, 2021

73 de Jim, N2EY
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SWMAN

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1187 on: August 26, 2022, 08:46:34 PM »

 Interesting statistics. Thanks for sending.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2022, 08:49:40 PM by SWMAN »
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N2EY

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Re: RE: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1188 on: September 10, 2022, 06:19:39 PM »

From http://www.arrl.org/fcc-license-counts

the number of current unexpired FCC issued amateur licenses held by individuals on September 8, 2022 was:

Novice:                    6,441      (0.8%)
Technician            390,393     (50.6%)
Technician Plus               0       (0.0%)
General                186,253     (24.1%)
Advanced               34,936       (4.5%)
Extra                    154,393     (20.0%)

Total                    772,416

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

No new Novice or Advanced licenses have been issued since April 2000. However, the totals for those classes may sometimes show an increase over prior numbers due to renewals in the grace period.

This is not a new all-time high. It is provided to avoid a large gap in the timeline.

The all-time high total of 780,526 occurred November 24, 2021

73 de Jim, N2EY
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N2EY

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Re: RE: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1189 on: September 15, 2022, 06:18:34 AM »

From http://www.arrl.org/fcc-license-counts

the number of current unexpired FCC issued amateur licenses held by individuals on September 13, 2022 was:

Novice:                    6,431      (0.8%)
Technician            390,264     (50.6%)
Technician Plus               0       (0.0%)
General                186,296     (24.1%)
Advanced               34,918       (4.5%)
Extra                    154,397     (20.0%)

Total                    772,306

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

No new Novice or Advanced licenses have been issued since April 2000. However, the totals for those classes may sometimes show an increase over prior numbers due to renewals in the grace period.

This is not a new all-time high. It is provided to avoid a large gap in the timeline.

The all-time high total of 780,526 occurred November 24, 2021

73 de Jim, N2EY
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K0UA

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1190 on: September 15, 2022, 07:20:41 AM »

Couple of things to consider:

1) Over a million Americans have died from C19 in the past 2.5 years. At least some of them were hams. If just 0.2% of Americans are hams, that works out to 20,000 dead amateurs from C19.


Don't think so. Using your figures  If 1 Million have died from C19 and the ham population is 0.2% of that 1 million total then the number of dead hams from C19 would be 2,000 NOT 20,000
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73  James K0UA

N2EY

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1191 on: September 16, 2022, 06:14:22 AM »

Couple of things to consider:

1) Over a million Americans have died from C19 in the past 2.5 years. At least some of them were hams. If just 0.2% of Americans are hams, that works out to 20,000 dead amateurs from C19.


Don't think so. Using your figures  If 1 Million have died from C19 and the ham population is 0.2% of that 1 million total then the number of dead hams from C19 would be 2,000 NOT 20,000

You are correct, sir!! Many thanks for finding and fixing that mistake.

But - let's consider.....

We're down about 8,000 from the peak of November 24, 2021. C19 can't be responsible for all of that loss, even if the correct number were 20,000, because licenses don't all expire at the same time. If we allow for even 4000 from C19 (due to demographics of amateurs and C19 victims), and assuming that every C19 death was reported to FCC by relatives, it still doesn't account for the decline of 8,000 - not even close. 

So - what else is going on?

My best guess is that it's a number of factors besides C19:

- License fees. While $35 for a 10 year license is less than a penny a day, I have read many reports of confusion about how to actually pay the fee. As I understand it, you can't just send a check or money order to FCC; payment MUST be done online with a credit card. I suspect a number of inactive folks have just said "the heck with it" and walked away.

- The closed-off license classes (Novice and Advanced) have been declining in number for over 22 years now, and will continue to do so. But note that the Technician license class is declining, while the General and Extra are growing. Part of that decline in Technicians is upgrades, but the main part is folks simply letting their licenses lapse and not being replaced by newcomers.

Since November 24, 2021, the number of Extras has increased by 141 and the number of Generals by 153. But the number of Technicians has decreased by 6,714! So upgrading can't begin to explain the decline in Technicians.

It would be interesting to know what is really driving that decline.

73 de Jim, N2EY

« Last Edit: September 16, 2022, 06:19:23 AM by N2EY »
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K0UA

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1192 on: September 16, 2022, 06:23:27 AM »

I would say you are likely on track with a lot of the inactive hams letting their licenses lapse now that there is a fee.

 As we all know there are a lot of inactive hams for a lot of different reasons. But now that there is money and a very small amount of actual effort involved in renewing a license, perhaps many have just said "to heck with it" or something similar. Time will tell.
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73  James K0UA

K6BRN

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1193 on: September 16, 2022, 07:34:53 PM »

I would say you are likely on track with a lot of the inactive hams letting their licenses lapse now that there is a fee.

 As we all know there are a lot of inactive hams for a lot of different reasons. But now that there is money and a very small amount of actual effort involved in renewing a license, perhaps many have just said "to heck with it" or something similar. Time will tell.

Hi James.  This concern has been around for decades and no doubt will be around for a few decades yet.  It will not stop me from enjoying this hobby, or exploring fun new equipment while I still can.

One thing that would help is if the ever popular robotics competitions injected some RF T&C challenges into the mix, where competitors needed to build and integrate some of the TX/RX equipment and antennas.  In the local ones out here, wireless T&C is largely an afterthought.  Perhaps if there was a jamming rejection and anti-spoofing requirement, there would be more interest in radio.  Then again, maybe comms would go optical.  Still, it'd add a great new dimension to something that's getting a little stale.

On a different but positive note, the sheer innovation of the last few years, in the new digital modes, SS/LDMOS amplifiers and in DSP/SDR/hybrid radios - combined with an "UP" solar/propagation cycle has injected a lot of excitement into what has been a very conservative pastime.  That's a GOOD thing.

I see there is now a matching tuner out for the Mercury III.  Is that on your gear acquisition list?

All the best...

Brian - K6BRN
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K0UA

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1194 on: September 16, 2022, 08:58:37 PM »

Quote
I see there is now a matching tuner out for the Mercury III.  Is that on your gear acquisition list?

Thinking about it. A local friend has one and likes it. We shall see.
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73  James K0UA

N2EY

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1195 on: September 27, 2022, 07:24:06 AM »

I would say you are likely on track with a lot of the inactive hams letting their licenses lapse now that there is a fee.

 As we all know there are a lot of inactive hams for a lot of different reasons. But now that there is money and a very small amount of actual effort involved in renewing a license, perhaps many have just said "to heck with it" or something similar. Time will tell.

Quite possibly - but there's more!

Besides the fee, there's the new CORES2 system, which gums up the works even more. Old CORES is gone, new CORES is here.

For most hams today, the renewal process goes something like this:

1) Dig up one's FRN number and password. (You did write the password down someplace, right?)

2) Go to the FCC website and find the CORES2 (new CORES) part.

3) Register a new CORES2 account, with new username and 12-to-15 character password that meets FCC requirements. Note that it's NOT the same as your FRN username or password, nor the same as your old CORES stuff.

4) Be sure to write all this down.

5) Log on to your new CORES2 account and link your FRN to your CORES2 account.

Now you are ready to renew your license.

6) Go through the online renewal process. Be sure to have a valid credit card handy, because that's the only way FCC accepts payment, and if you don't pay they don't renew.

Forget your FRN number and/or password? There's a procedure for that too - it adds even more steps.

Confused? So was I. And I don't need to renew until 2024.

It's not difficult or time consuming if you have all the passwords and other stuff, and understand all the steps What's difficult is getting to that point!

Here's how I understand it:

CORES is all about YOU, the licensee.

FRN is all about the actual license.

They have to be linked so FCC knows who holds what license(s).

They did it this way to accommodate people who hold multiple licenses, often in multiple radio services. Which means extra steps and such even if all you have is one license.

And the renewal window before expiration is only 90 days. Of course you can renew in the 2 year grace period.

All that will cause some to simply throw up their hands and walk away. But it will also cause more than a few others to delay their renewal until they figure out the path through the maze.

With 10 year license terms, it's easy to get rusty on how it all works.

----

GEEZER ALERT!

Remember when all you had to do was get a Form 610, fill it out, and mail it to FCC? And they even sent you a paper license? (They stopped sending paper licenses some time back - if you want one, there's a whole procedure to log in and download a PDF that you can print yourself).

73 de Jim, N2EY

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N2EY

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Re: RE: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1196 on: September 27, 2022, 07:25:38 AM »

From http://www.arrl.org/fcc-license-counts

the number of current unexpired FCC issued amateur licenses held by individuals on September 26, 2022 was:

Novice:                    6,418      (0.8%)
Technician            390,623     (50.6%)
Technician Plus               0       (0.0%)
General                186,310     (24.1%)
Advanced               34,872       (4.5%)
Extra                    154,430     (20.0%)

Total                    772,053

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

No new Novice or Advanced licenses have been issued since April 2000. However, the totals for those classes may sometimes show an increase over prior numbers due to renewals in the grace period.

This is not a new all-time high. It is provided to avoid a large gap in the timeline.

The all-time high total of 780,526 occurred November 24, 2021

73 de Jim, N2EY
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W3HF

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1197 on: September 28, 2022, 07:51:21 AM »

Here's how I understand it:

Jim -

I think that's close--here's my take.

CORES is all about YOU, the licensee.

The CORES login is an email address. For an individual, it's usually a single person. For a corporation (like a commercial radio operator), it could be a personal email address (johnsmith@radiostationWXYZ.com) or an email address for a specific title that is passed from one person to another, such as chiefengineer@radiostationWXYZ.com. But the key is that it does NOT have to be the licensee. (See the next point.)

FRN is all about the actual license.

Not quite. FRN is all about the registration of the license, i.e., the licensee. If an individual has only one license, you are right--they are virtually synonymous. If an individual has a GMRS license and a ham license, and the registrations (licensees) are the same, they would use the same FRN for both licenses. The same is true for television station WXYZ, who has separate licenses for their broadcast channel and their remote ENG vehicles. But a club license is registered to the club, not the trustee. The club is the licensee, not the trustee, so the club has its own FRN.

They have to be linked so FCC knows who holds what license(s).

Again, I would say not quite. I would say "They have to be linked so FCC knows who has responsibility for what license(s)." After all, a license listing on the ULS lists who holds the license itself, even if there isn't a CORES account associated with it. A single CORES login can be associated with multiple FRNs, as in the case of the club trustee--s/he has one CORES login, but that is responsible for two FRNs. (Or maybe even more if s/he is trustee of more than one club.) Or the commercial case of someone who is Chief Engineer of both WXYZ Radio and WXYZ Television, where the two stations are owned by affiliated-but-separate corporations. The FRNs would be different, but the responsibility for the licenses might be the same person (with a single CORES login).

They did it this way to accommodate people who hold multiple licenses, often in multiple radio services. Which means extra steps and such even if all you have is one license.

Absolutely. But it's more general than you stated, for precisely that reason. It's just that most of the examples that drive these capabilities (other than clubs) are from the other services.

And one case I'm not sure about is whether FRNs can be associated with multiple CORES logins. An example would be the trustee of a club license, and the president of the club itself. A commercial example would be the Chief Engineer of WXYZ and the associate chief engineer. This would allow continued license modifications and renewals, even if the first person was unavailable due to illness/resignation/death/etc. Like I said, I'm not sure if this is possible, but it makes sense. If anyone has tried this, I'd be interested in finding out if it worked.

73,
Steve
W3HF
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N2EY

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1198 on: September 30, 2022, 11:46:49 AM »

Here's how I understand it:

Jim -

I think that's close--here's my take.

CORES is all about YOU, the licensee.

The CORES login is an email address. For an individual, it's usually a single person. For a corporation (like a commercial radio operator), it could be a personal email address (johnsmith@radiostationWXYZ.com) or an email address for a specific title that is passed from one person to another, such as chiefengineer@radiostationWXYZ.com. But the key is that it does NOT have to be the licensee. (See the next point.)

FRN is all about the actual license.

Not quite. FRN is all about the registration of the license, i.e., the licensee. If an individual has only one license, you are right--they are virtually synonymous. If an individual has a GMRS license and a ham license, and the registrations (licensees) are the same, they would use the same FRN for both licenses. The same is true for television station WXYZ, who has separate licenses for their broadcast channel and their remote ENG vehicles. But a club license is registered to the club, not the trustee. The club is the licensee, not the trustee, so the club has its own FRN.

They have to be linked so FCC knows who holds what license(s).

Again, I would say not quite. I would say "They have to be linked so FCC knows who has responsibility for what license(s)." After all, a license listing on the ULS lists who holds the license itself, even if there isn't a CORES account associated with it. A single CORES login can be associated with multiple FRNs, as in the case of the club trustee--s/he has one CORES login, but that is responsible for two FRNs. (Or maybe even more if s/he is trustee of more than one club.) Or the commercial case of someone who is Chief Engineer of both WXYZ Radio and WXYZ Television, where the two stations are owned by affiliated-but-separate corporations. The FRNs would be different, but the responsibility for the licenses might be the same person (with a single CORES login).

They did it this way to accommodate people who hold multiple licenses, often in multiple radio services. Which means extra steps and such even if all you have is one license.

Absolutely. But it's more general than you stated, for precisely that reason. It's just that most of the examples that drive these capabilities (other than clubs) are from the other services.

And one case I'm not sure about is whether FRNs can be associated with multiple CORES logins. An example would be the trustee of a club license, and the president of the club itself. A commercial example would be the Chief Engineer of WXYZ and the associate chief engineer. This would allow continued license modifications and renewals, even if the first person was unavailable due to illness/resignation/death/etc. Like I said, I'm not sure if this is possible, but it makes sense. If anyone has tried this, I'd be interested in finding out if it worked.

73,
Steve
W3HF

Many thanks, Steve!

Here's the Big Thing for most amateurs:

To renew one's license, a licensee needs to be registered in both the new CORES system and the FRN, have user IDs and passwords for both, and have them properly linked - before they can even START the process.

Then, to renew, they need to have a valid credit card to pay the fee.

And it can only be done online - either by the licensee or a third party.

It would not surprise me if all this was a major reason for the recent decline in numbers.

73 de Jim, N2EY
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SWMAN

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Re: FCC License Counts
« Reply #1199 on: September 30, 2022, 07:39:00 PM »

 Not really sure why it is so difficult to renew. When I renewed 2 years ago I went through the ARRL and they did it for me. No problem at all.
 I think it was through the VEC program. It was all completed over the telephone.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2022, 07:55:33 PM by SWMAN »
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