It is interesting to note that extra class license holders continue to have modest increases and general class license counts are fairly flat.
Let's compare the numbers from November 24, 2021 with those just posted...
November 24, 2021:
Novice: 6,905
Technician 396,978
Technician Plus 0
General 186,143
Advanced 36,244
Extra 154,256
Total 780,526
March 22, 2023:
Novice: 6,182 - loss of 723
Technician 383,944 - loss of 13,034
General 186,480 - gain of 337
Advanced 34,045 - loss of 2,199
Extra 154,678 - gain of 422
Total 765,329 - loss of 15,197
Now let's look at the current totals as a percentage of the November 24, 2021 totals:
Novice: 6,182 - currently 89.5% of peak
Technician 383,944 - currently 96.7% of peak
General 186,480 - currently 100.2% of peak
Advanced 34,045 - currently 93.9% of peak
Extra 154,678 - currently 100.3% of peak
Total 765,329 - currently 98.1% of peak
The decreases seem to be driven by losses in the technician-class licenses;
Clearly - both in total numbers and in percentages
Following many of the discussions here and on the /reddit forums there continues to be a great deal of frustration from techs who have VHF/UHF privileges. As if they joined the hobby and discovered that it was more difficult than expected, there was nobody to talk to (who had the same interests) or the prepper/SHTF zombie apocalypse just did not materialize.
Here's the problem I see:
The Technician became the de-facto entry-level license back in the early 1980s due to the repeater boom. Not only were there repeaters all over the place but they were BUSY. The 1987 reduction in Technician written testing and the 1991 loss of the Morse Code test sealed the deal.
Previously, newcomers had mostly started out on HF CW. The repeater boom and popularity of the Technician changed that to VHF/UHF voice. But it's not 1993 any more, and the repeaters aren't nearly so busy, because everyone has a cell phone.
What was a big draw decades ago isn't any more.
The recent addition of fees has (IMHO) pushed the decline really hard. It's not the $35 but the complexity of renewal; I suspect that many who are inactive simply don't bother.
So many of the simplest questions they ask in the forums are for things that they should have easily mastered to take any part of the math sections on the US exams.
Before 1991 there was no such thing as a "Technician In A Day" cram school. The loss of the code test changed all that, and such schools are common. They work because passing grade is only 74%, all questions count the same, and a lucky guess counts the same as full understanding.
I do not know if the amateur radio community has failed them, or they thought that it would be entirely plug-and-play, appliance-operator skills level. Maybe they would be better off with FRS radios for their day trips to a state park with their kids. The ubiquity of cellphones and apps must make amateur radio seem archaic and of limited usefulness.
Amateur Radio is an extremely varied pursuit that can be hard to explain. IMHO the best explanation is "Radio for its own sake".
---
It should be remembered that from the mid-to-late 1990s our numbers declined, which was a big reason given for the 2000 restructuring. Then from 2003 to 2007 we saw another decline. In those times there were no fees for licenses and the VE system was the same as now....
73 de Jim, N2EY