Worked ZL with 5 watts on 10 meters Thursday night local.
The difference between today and past cycles that may make it seem worse:
1. Home owner restrictions (yes, I am bringing up THAT topic up again)
2. Packet clusters (and yes, I am bring THAT topic up again too!
3. Change in perception/expectation (instant gratification)
4. Change in lifestyle (more work, more distractions, less time for hamming)
For me, after 36 years in the hobby, I remember the great times in summer of 1979 in central California on the coast with dipoles and 100 watts, running UA9/0 and JA pileups on 15 meters until midnight local time. Every time I moved as a kid I was able to get DXCC in about 12 months of casual operating with wires: 4-land, 3-land, 6-land.
On the flip side, the equipment is MUCH better now. I would argue that it could be considered easier to get DXCC than 30 years ago (can be done in 24 hours of contesting if using the packet clusters during a DX contest) but harder to get something like Honor Roll because everyone is aware and onboard. One spot and there is chaos.
I will say the one thing that made a big difference in DXing that had nothing to do with sunspot cycles (well, three things, actually):
1. Getting my CW speed up to and above 20 WPM
2. Getting an amp in 2010 (finally gave in and went QRO)
3. Passing the Extra exam in 1990
Item #3 was the biggest factor. The extra 25 kHz of the CW band, where the juciest DX hangs out, was a MAJOR factor. That one item really accelerated my DX adventure.
So I would say it's all relative. Sunspot cycle may be weak, but the sun ain't dead, and there are many othern factors in the mix....both for and against. N3QE is 100% correct - you can't work 'em if you can't hear 'em, and you ain't gonna hear 'em of the rig is off.