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Author Topic: "Poor" forecasts  (Read 8803 times)

K6RQR

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"Poor" forecasts
« on: October 27, 2014, 03:22:50 PM »

Hello All -
 The trend lately for the propagation forecast on QRZ has been pretty dismal. Day after day of 80-20 meters being predicted as "poor" with some improvements at night. Does anyone have any idea when this will improve? It's hard to believe that is is all due to solar flare activity. One person said it was the usual "summer doldrums". It sure doesn't look like it.

73,
Bruce  K6RQR
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AE5HL

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RE: "Poor" forecasts
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2014, 07:41:44 PM »

10 has been WIDE open the last few days...  I thought the solar cycle was on a downturn???
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W1JKA

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RE: "Poor" forecasts
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2014, 08:13:08 AM »

   Propagation forecast are no different than weather forecast, if you really want to know what's happening just look out your window or in this case just get on the air tune around and hear for your self. 
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NO2A

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RE: "Poor" forecasts
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 08:07:19 AM »

10,12,15m have been great the last few days. On 10/27 we had an opening on 6m to the midwest. I worked 3 states. Despite the band being open,I heard maybe a total of 5 people on. Even heard a beacon as far as KS. I don`t rely on forecasts,I listen to the radio.
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KD2CTY

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RE: "Poor" forecasts
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 05:54:12 PM »

I find dxmaps dot com very helpful with seeing where the activity on different bands is.  The W6NEK Beacon tracker program works great for seeing what pathways are open.  Watch where the beacons are and tune in to see if you can hear them.  If you can hear that particular beacon well, then that band is open to that particular country.
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N3QE

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RE: "Poor" forecasts
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2014, 08:56:46 AM »

I don't think the one-word descriptions per band really capture what's going on, on the bands in their full complexity.

Don't get me wrong, I think there is value in SSN, SFI, A, K indices and VOACAP and other simulations.

But nothing beats getting on the air.

80M was just super-spectacular in domestic use in past week and some of us were lucky enough to bag FT4TA.

40M/30M have also been very good for DX.

10M weekend before last was just amazing in CQ WW SSB. I think better than any other time in this cycle.

I have been reading ARRL weekly propagation forecasts and the anecdotal stuff that is included about the previous week, is probably of greater value in indicating conditions and their variability, than the one-word descriptions. I think the numbers and their variability is of more value than the one-word descriptions.

Tim.
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