eHam
eHam Forums => Propagation => Topic started by: N9FB on November 03, 2019, 07:43:44 AM
-
so today i am seeing the "sunspot number" being listed as 13, but i dont know much about solar cycle science.
questions:
1. does 13 mean there are currently 13 sunspots in existence or, is that in the last month, or ...? (i thought we were at, or near, 0)
2. has solar cycle 24 ended and 25 begun -- or is the picture too "gray" right now to know with certainty?
https://spaceweather.com (https://spaceweather.com)
-
SSN (average of global observations) = 10g + s
g = number of sunspot groups
s = number of sunspots
so SSN 13 = 1 group with a total of 3 sunspots
The current sunspot group is from Cycle 24
There just was a spot from Cycle 25 that faded away quickly
The sun is transitioning from Cycle 24 to 25
73, Richard
AB4ZT
-
https://www.skyandtelescope.com/astronomy-news/how-astronomers-count-sunspots15022016513/
-
From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
http://k9la.us/
My presentation at the 2019 Vette City Hamfest (Bowling Green, KY) titled “Vette City Hamfest October 2019 K9LA” is in the General link
http://k9la.us/Vette_City_Hamfest_October_2019_K9LA.pdf
Downloads: Approx 3,661 kb size PDF file of 30-page slide presentation
TALK OVERVIEW: Taking the Mystery Out of Radio Propagation and Solar Forecasts
TOPICS WE'LL COVER:
• Preliminaries
• Solar-Terrestrial data at www.qrz.com and its relation to propagation
• Cycle 24
• Propagation at solar minimum
• Cycle 25
Carl, Any Cycle 25 Sunspots yet?
Finally, a long duration Cycle 25 sunspot on July 8, 2019
• Assigned AR2744
• Likely the first ‘official’ Cycle 25 sunspot
Enjoy!
-
From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA.........
Thanks for posting that, very informative! I’m still curious about how you can tell a cycle 24 sunspot from a cycle 25. I’m off to look it up...
-
From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA.........
Thanks for posting that, very informative! I’m still curious about how you can tell a cycle 24 sunspot from a cycle 25. I’m off to look it up...
From spaceweatherarchive.com:
“Southern sunspots from old Solar Cycle 24 have a -/+ polarity. This sunspot is the opposite: +/-. According to Hale’s Law, sunspots switch polarities from one solar cycle to the next. AR2744 is therefore a member of Solar Cycle 25.”
-
From the ... Welcome to K9LA’s Amateur Radio Propagation Web Site
Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA
http://k9la.us/
My presentation at the 2019 Vette City Hamfest (Bowling Green, KY) titled “Vette City Hamfest October 2019 K9LA” is in the General link
http://k9la.us/Vette_City_Hamfest_October_2019_K9LA.pdf
Downloads: Approx 3,661 kb size PDF file of 30-page slide presentation
TALK OVERVIEW: Taking the Mystery Out of Radio Propagation and Solar Forecasts
TOPICS WE'LL COVER:
• Preliminaries
• Solar-Terrestrial data at www.qrz.com and its relation to propagation
• Cycle 24
• Propagation at solar minimum
• Cycle 25
Carl, Any Cycle 25 Sunspots yet?
Finally, a long duration Cycle 25 sunspot on July 8, 2019
• Assigned AR2744
• Likely the first ‘official’ Cycle 25 sunspot
Enjoy!
tks for the helpful post!
looks like more good news may be popping: https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM (https://youtu.be/Rm520CkqoLM)
-
That was a good tube link, I just saw another video one week newer! Thanks
-
Reversed Polarity Sunspots Appear on the Sun
by: Dr. Tony Phillips
Dec. 24, 2019: Solar Cycle 25 really is coming. Today, for the first time, there are two new-cycle sunspots on the solar disk–one in each hemisphere. This map of solar magnetic fields from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory shows their location:
(https://spaceweather.com/images2019/24dec19/magnetogram_strip.jpg)
We know these sunspots belong to the next solar cycle because of their magnetic polarity. Simply put, they are backwards. According to Hale’s Law, sunspot polarities flip-flop from one solar cycle to the next. During old Solar Cycle 24, we grew accustomed to sunspots in the sun’s southern hemisphere having a -/+ pattern. However, look at today’s southern sunspot:
(https://spaceweather.com/images2019/24dec19/newspot_strip.jpg)
It is the opposite: +/-. This identifies it as a member of new Solar Cycle 25.
Likewise, today’s northern sunspot has a reversed polarity compared to northern spots from old Solar Cycle 24. It, too, therefore, belongs to Solar Cycle 25.
The sun is currently in Solar Minimum–the nadir of the 11-year sunspot cycle. It’s a deep Minimum, century-class according to sunspot counts. The scarcity of sunspots has been so remarkable that it has prompted discussion of a possible “extended Minimum” akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century when sunspots were absent for decades. Such an event could have implications for terrestrial climate.
Today’s new-cycle sunspots (along with isolated new-cycle spots earlier this year) suggest that the solar cycle is, in fact, unfolding normally. A new Maunder Minimum does not appear to be in the offing. Forecasters expect Solar Cycle 25 to slowly gain strength in the years ahead and reach a peak in July 2025.
source: https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/25/reversed-polarity-sunspots-appear-on-the-sun/ (https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/12/25/reversed-polarity-sunspots-appear-on-the-sun/)
-
anyone have a good update, article, or stats on the present status for solar cycle 25 (and/or the transition from 24 to 25)?
-
Yes, here is a message that was on the CQ-Contest reflector yesterday:
Early this month SWPC published their official updated prediction of
Solar Cycle 25 in a new user-interactive graph format. Their updated
prediction is based on the results of NOAA's Solar Cycle 25 Prediction
Panel.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
SWPC forecasts a solar maximum between 105 and 125 with the
peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026. There is
broad consensus that Solar Minimum is ongoing this year -- or may
have already occurred -- and that Cycle 25 will have no major change
in the level of solar activity compared to Cycle 24.
For many years SWPC's solar cycle predictions have used the Royal
Observatory of Belgium's International Sunspot Number. SWPC's official
solar cycle prediction now uses the SWPC sunspot number. The
International Sunspot Number is typically about one third lower than the
SWPC sunspot number.
While this is SWPC's official Cycle 25 prediction, its important to note
there is still divergence among various forecasting methods and members
of the space weather forecasting community. Most forecasts and
forecasters agree that the Cycle 25 is likely to be within plus or minus
20 percent of Cycle 24 and is likely to occur between 2024 and 2027.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z/tables/2
-
While not-so-optimistic predictions suggest solar cycle 25 will be similar to, or a slightly depreciated version of cycle 24, there are some optimistic prognostications out there too. :)
Here is an example of a very hopeful prediction:
Five scientists associated with National Center for Atmospheric Research, Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, University of Maryland Department of Astronomy, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics and Political Science, School of Engineering and Innovation are making a bold prediction about Solar Cycle 25.
In the June 27, 2020 document titled “Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude” they write:
“... we deduce that sunspot cycle 25 will have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began. This outcome would be in stark contrast to the community consensus estimate of sunspot cycle 25 magnitude.”
[....]
They predict with 95% confidence that the cycle 25 amplitude will fall between 153 and 305 spots. This would be in the top five of those observed. There method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed, and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous.
source article: Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf)
-
Are ham radio operators the only ones that benefit from strong solar cycle? It seems to me that these positive reports can only be aimed at radio operators, but is there any other use for a strong solar cycle.
I'll make a answer that I think would fit. (I'm guessing) It gives science a chance to learn more and every event is worth studying.
-
A year ago, 20 meters was dead. Now we have propagation into the night. We are on the upswing. This will be my 6th cycle. Every 11 years there is the predictable gloom and doom from new hams.
Build the best station possible and enjoy what mother nature has provided for free.
If you want to see the sunspot cycle improve please send your $15 donation to the Propagation Fund at K6AER.com. I will guarantee the sunspot situation will improve.
-
I'm too busy to send money right now, I am trying to figure how young you could be to have remembered 6 cycles, don't tell me I'll figure it out..
Also if I send money to your fund will it come back to 4 fold ?
-
I'm too busy to send money right now, I am trying to figure how young you could be to have remembered 6 cycles, don't tell me I'll figure it out..
Also if I send money to your fund will it come back to 4 fold ?
My foundation will return sunspots 10 fold. So please send paypal funds to K0ua (at) yahoo dot com.
All donations to my foundations will receive a thank you very much email. You can be assured of that.
Looking forward to hearing from you. :)
-
(https://i.postimg.cc/BQmG24rw/Sunspot-Cycle-Chart.png)
-
Join scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for a special episode of NASA Science Live on Tuesday, Sept. 15, at 3 p.m. EDT as they discuss predictions for the upcoming solar cycle.
see: NASA to host live Q&A on tracking our next Solar Cycle
https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/nasa-to-host-live-q-a-on-tracking-our-next-solar-cycle.724653/ (https://forums.qrz.com/index.php?threads/nasa-to-host-live-q-a-on-tracking-our-next-solar-cycle.724653/)
-
here is an eham article by W7TJ entitled: Cycle 25 Possibilities
https://www.eham.net/article/45381 (https://www.eham.net/article/45381)
-
I'm too busy to send money right now, I am trying to figure how young you could be to have remembered 6 cycles, don't tell me I'll figure it out..
Also if I send money to your fund will it come back to 4 fold ?
My foundation will return sunspots 10 fold. So please send paypal funds to K0ua (at) yahoo dot com.
All donations to my foundations will receive a thank you very much email. You can be assured of that.
Looking forward to hearing from you. :)
I will gladly pay you on Tuesday for some sunspots today.
-
so cycle 25 seems to finally be on the uptick, right?
Does anyone have a link they can share to a site which depicts the solar numbers graphically and is up to date? (ideally including all of cycle 24 or a user option to set the time frame). All of the graphs i find of recent solar cycles are about a year or more old
i found this as far as raw numbers but a picture is with a 1000 words and i am not skilled with computer graphing -> https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php)
i am surprised solar ham doesn't offer such a daily upgraded graph on its website's front page... (if there is a link on that site to such a graph: please enlighten me)
-
https://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/past_cycle.shtml
Graph of the last year up to yesterday.
-
I am a little disappointed in the lack of donors to my sunspot foundation. I was very serious about the "thank you" email.
-
From the Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA Radio Propagation Web Site
http://k9la.us/body_index.html
On November 1, 2020 in the Timely Topics link: updated Cycle 24/Cycle 25 sunspots plot.
This latest update includes October 2020 monthly mean data.
(http://k9la.us/assets/images/web_site_Nov_1_-_from_Cycle_23_and_24_xls.jpg)
-
W1VT and WA2ONH thanks for the helpful replies!
do you have any with all of cycle 24 and this early start to 25 but that includes November? (best i can find only shows early 2020)
-
I am a little disappointed in the lack of donors to my sunspot foundation. I was very serious about the "thank you" email.
promise us that we will be listed in your eham post signatures as "official sponsors of K0UA's cycle 25 get out the sunspots initiative" and you may get a few more hits ;)
-
SFI: 100 and SSN: 37
(https://i.postimg.cc/dVk7rts8/SFI-11-25-2020.png)
any predictions on when we will see the SFI hit 150 as solar cycle 25 does its upward climb?
-
I'll predict, but really, I'm no scientist, I'm guessing, I'll be optimistic and say we have peaks of 150 before the end of the year.
We are getting a pretty good bang for the buck for 3 or 4 spots on the sun and some of those are bigger than the earth.
What if we had as many as 7, 8, 9, spots?
I am hearing some different conditions that I haven't heard in a long time.
-
I am a little disappointed in the lack of donors to my sunspot foundation. I was very serious about the "thank you" email.
promise us that we will be listed in your eham post signatures as "official sponsors of K0UA's cycle 25 get out the sunspots initiative" and you may get a few more hits ;)
Done and dusted! :)
-
wow, it is early, but my dreams of a cycle 19-like Solar Cycle 25 may just be materializing!
quite the uptick from a few short months ago:
(https://i.postimg.cc/jSyRXnZH/Sunspot-Numbers-11-30-2020.png)
[above image courtesy of: solarham.net]
K0UA your sunspot foundation apparently is doing great things. i am sure the checks will start rolling in ;)
-
K0UA your sunspot foundation apparently is doing great things. i am sure the checks will start rolling in
Told you I could deliver! :)
-
wow, it is early, but my dreams of a cycle 19-like Solar Cycle 25 may just be materializing!
quite the uptick from a few short months ago:
(https://i.postimg.cc/jSyRXnZH/Sunspot-Numbers-11-30-2020.png)
[above image courtesy of: solarham.net]
K0UA your sunspot foundation apparently is doing great things. i am sure the checks will start rolling in ;)
Told you I could deliver! :)
presuming said delivery was due to the work your foundation -- it is hard to argue with how quickly you got the SFI to >100.
yet the question now is how do you explain this drop? ->
(https://i.postimg.cc/L4kDK83T/Sunspot-Numbers-12-01-2020.png)
are you holding the numbers low as a way of garnering more donations, or is this just a "3 steps forward, 1 step back" kind of dance we're undertaking? :D
-
My foundation is responsible ONLY for positive advances. Any fallbacks are the work of other nefarious forces that are contrary to our message of goodness and good propagation. To ensure this forward movement and to combat any setbacks, please, keep your generous donations coming in. A personal thank you e-mail will accompany each and every donation. If you haven't received your e-mail yet, are you sure to donated to my foundation or was it one of those dark forces? :)
-
Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:
(http://www.dxlabsuite.com/propview/SolControl.jpg)
-
Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:
(http://www.dxlabsuite.com/propview/SolControl.jpg)
:o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
-
Don't know and we shall see, but this bunch thinks cycle 25 to be a great one:
http://spaceref.com/space-weather-2/new-sunspot-cycle-could-be-one-of-the-strongest-on-record-new-research-predicts.html
-
thank you for the uplifting article 8)
"When we look back over the 270-year long observational record of terminator events, we see that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle," said study co-author Bob Leamon, a researcher at the University of Maryland Baltimore County. "And, conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle is.
This correlation has been difficult for scientists to see in the past because they have traditionally measured the length of a sunspot cycle from solar minimum to solar minimum, which is defined using an average rather than a precise event. In the new study, the researchers measured from terminator to terminator, which allows for much greater precision.
While terminator events occur approximately every 11 years and mark the beginning and end of the sunspot cycle, the time between terminators can vary by years. For example, Sunspot Cycle 4 began with a terminator in 1786 and ended with a terminator in 1801, an unprecedented 15 years later. The following cycle, 5, was incredibly weak with a peak amplitude of just 82 sunspots. That cycle would become known as the beginning of the "Dalton" Grand Minimum.
Similarly, Sunspot Cycle 23 began in 1998 and did not end until 2011, 13 years later. Sunspot Cycle 24, which is just ending, was quite weak as well, but it was also quite short -- just shy of 10 years long - and that's the basis for the new study's bullish prediction that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be strong.
-
and me without a beam... I bought one during the low propagation period so I could get out then I moved, traveled, got married, relocated, etc... never put it up yet, now I'll need it for the front to back and front to side properties because propagation will be great...
I was licensed during solar cycle 19 folks. It was incredible. If the current one is like that then hamming will be an adventure day in and day out... wow... hams scoff at the idea of a rig high up Sherwood's list being the way to go but when the interference is coming in strong from all over the world they might be rethinking that... I knew a novice licensee that got his DXCC about 1960. He was restricted to 75 watts and no privilege on 20 meters... good times folks, good times!!
-
it is nice to see that while the SFI was in the 60's at times as recently as October 2020, it got to 113 in late November and -- after dipping to 78.1 on Dec 20 -- it is now moving upwardly again (88.5 yesterday Dec 25th).
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php) (i wish the data here was also presented in graph form...)
- - - -
to be entered to potentially* win an imaginary can of triple-strength enhanced prop spray -- guess the date when cycle 25's SFI will 1st reach 120
*disclaimer: date of imaginary drawing will be in year (25 * infinity minus one) -- check back then to see if you "won"
-
*Disclaimer: The K0UA foundation is ONLY responsible for rises in the solar flux and the current dips are most certainly caused by external malevolent forces. So all of you that donated to the K0UA foundation, stop asking for your money back! :)
-
*Disclaimer: The K0UA foundation is ONLY responsible for rises in the solar flux and the current dips are most certainly caused by external malevolent forces. So all of you that donated to the K0UA foundation, stop asking for your money back! :)
Woo-Haw!!!
Charlie
-
i would love to see a graph done which shows the daily SFI data posted here --
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php) --
in pictorial form in order to to compare solar cycle 24 data to present cycle 25's data at this early juncture in the cycle, but alas utilizing software to read data and then graph it is not my forte. ...if anyone out there has that capability, please post a graph here (or share a website that will do it)...
-
i would love to see a graph done which shows the daily SFI data posted here --
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php) --
in pictorial form in order to to compare solar cycle 24 data to present cycle 25's data at this early juncture in the cycle, but alas utilizing software to read data and then graph it is not my forte. ...if anyone out there has that capability, please post a graph here (or share a website that will do it)...
The very simplest of Excel spreadsheets will create a graph for you from a set of data points.
-
i would love to see a graph done which shows the daily SFI data posted here --
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-en.php) --
in pictorial form in order to to compare solar cycle 24 data to present cycle 25's data at this early juncture in the cycle, but alas utilizing software to read data and then graph it is not my forte. ...if anyone out there has that capability, please post a graph here (or share a website that will do it)...
The very simplest of Excel spreadsheets will create a graph for you from a set of data points.
Thanks, i did not know how to use Excel to create a graph, and when i looked for instructions online after reading your reply, i imported the flux data and tried the "recommended charts" function in excel but i could not get the dates to read in the source format... So after i started to realize it would take some time for me to learn how to get excel to play with data successfully to make the kind of graph(s) i wanted, i went back to the data source page -- where i discovered that if i had simply read the link there that says: "plots" as meaning graphs -- I WOULD HAVE ALREADY FOUND the "graph" i was looking for [d'oh] :D
note-to-self: when you think of the "graphs" you learned to make by hand decades ago in school, expand the term to include charts and plots
(https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/auto_generated_products/solradmon_eng.png)
-
6 cycles ago means he's 80 years old.
Listen to me.
Don't worry about what cycle it is. Or those graphs.
-
note-to-self: when you think of the "graphs" you learned to make by hand decades ago in school, expand the term to include charts and plots
The program used to create that Penticon solar flux graph is called xmgrace. As far as I know, it only runs on Linux.
(http://www.w6rz.net/solarflux3.png)
-
Same graph updated to current date.
(http://www.w6rz.net/solarflux4.png)
-
Same graph updated to current date.
(http://www.w6rz.net/solarflux4.png)
that is awesome RZ -- thank you! now if you could return to this thread and post an update every couple months that would be superb :D
It's basically overlaying cycle 24 data with 25 data at the same juncture in the overall cycle and thus yields a good picture of whether cycle 25 is surpassing / mimicking / or underperforming cycle 24, right?
-
Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:
(http://www.dxlabsuite.com/propview/SolControl.jpg)
is this a completely new hardware design or the same kind that was used by hams in 1958?
if the release date has been delayed due to lack of resources, please start a gofundme campaign -- you should be rich in no time...
-
I don’t know about charts and graphs. I do know that yesterday I talked on 10 meters from Connecticut to Ohio. That was done with 40 Watts and an indoor antenna. It seems like we’re heading in the right direction now.
-
Foundation, schmoundation. What y'all clearly need is my new Sol Control application, on sale between now and Christmas for a measly $19.95:
(http://www.dxlabsuite.com/propview/SolControl.jpg)
is this a completely new hardware design or the same kind that was used by hams in 1958?
if the release date has been delayed due to lack of resources, please start a gofundme campaign -- you should be rich in no time...
N9FB you need to think bigger, why settle for a flux number of 250, go for some gusto and try for a fun number like 1000 or how about 10's orders of magnitude better than a Carrington event and shoot for a number of 5000.
Just think of how much fun some 1.2 GHz or maybe even 2.4 Ghz F2 propagation would be.
-
Same graph updated to current date.
(http://www.w6rz.net/solarflux4.png)
thanks again for that (and for calling it a graph!) :) Looks like we are moving back to an upslope trend:
(https://i.postimg.cc/9QN56y7q/Opera-Snapshot-2021-01-23-102007-www-solarham-net.png)
-
the waiting is the hardest part, RR?
(https://i.postimg.cc/J0yRVzHC/Opera-Snapshot-2021-01-30-093456-www-swpc-noaa-gov.png)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (http://source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression)
-
an updated look ->
(https://i.postimg.cc/0yhzb4Vg/SOLAR-CYCLE-25-PIC.png)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression)
-
Yeah according to that prediction we have to wait to late in 2022 to even get back to what we had with the spike in early December of 2020. That sucks. I need to finish out my 9 band DXCC and guess what two bands I need? yeah you guessed it 12 and 10 meters. I still need 8 on 12 meters and 6 on 10 meters. And 60 more on 6 meters for that matter. Personally I think predicting sunspots is crap. I don't think it can be done. The spike in December 2020 proves that in my mind.
-
Yeah according to that prediction we have to wait to late in 2022 to even get back to what we had with the spike in early December of 2020. Personally I think predicting sunspots is crap. I don't think it can be done. The spike in December 2020 proves that in my mind.
wasn't the spike in 2010 similar to the one we saw in late 2020? i agree that predicting Nature is beyond our ken, but past patterns can be helpful in trying to make guestimates. and in that context, we dont necessarily have to wait till late 2022 to get back to the recent spike because the predicted red curve is a smoothed average of spikes and dips, right?. maybe a spike is just around the corner (hope springs eternal).
-
For those optimists out there, here's a study that suggests that SC25 will be significantly stronger than the NOAA consensus prediction. In the words of the authors:
"Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, depending on when the upcoming termination happens, and it is highly likely that it will certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e. similar to that of SC24."
Here's that article:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y
Please don't shoot the messenger - it's provided for you to just understand their methodology - draw your own conclusion. Please hold your comments for five or six years to see if this radical assessment bares fruit. I, for one, am rooting for them to be correct.
-
For those optimists out there, here's a study that suggests that SC25 will be significantly stronger than the NOAA consensus prediction.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y
Conclusion
Our method predicts that SC25 could be among the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, depending on when the upcoming termination happens, and it is highly likely that it will certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180). This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e. similar to that of SC24. Indeed, as can be seen in Figure 4b, if our prediction for the 2020 terminator time is correct, such a low value would be a severe outlier with respect to the observed behavior of previous sunspot cycles. Such a low value could only be reconciled with the previously observed sunspot cycles if the next terminator event is delayed by more than two years from our predicted value, which would extend the present low activity levels to an extraordinary length. We note also that the relationship developed herein would have correctly predicted the low amplitude of SC24 (from a terminators separation of 12.825 years) following the 2011 terminator—three years after the 2006 NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle Prediction Panel delivered their consensus prediction (Pesnell, 2008). Finally, the arrival of the SC24 terminator will permit higher fidelity on the forecast presented.
thanks! i keep thinking we may be on the brink of the big one :) and i will continue that optimism till reality says otherwise :)
here is a real graph (so far) --
(https://i.postimg.cc/Hs028bYh/CYCLE-24-TO-25-GRAPH-4-22-2021.png)
-
I'm looking at solarham and the spots are not on the edge of the sun, they are getting closer to the middle (equator). Thats a good sign?
-
I'm looking at solarham and the spots are not on the edge of the sun, they are getting closer to the middle (equator). Thats a good sign?
I don't know...but I sure hope so.
-
the November 2020 numbers were great to see, wonder how long it will be before we get there again?
... we do appear to still be trending slightly above the predicted cycle 25 values:
(https://i.postimg.cc/T1TtYmy2/Opera-Snapshot-2021-05-12-092404-www-swpc-noaa-gov.png)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
-
The bands are pretty dead on the west coast of NA - I forgot what a good solar storm means. Nice to see the sun starting to awaken...
-
looking at the beginning of cycle 24 and comparing it to the beginning of cycle 25 makes me optimistic:
(https://i.postimg.cc/W4gdt9JY/Opera-Snapshot-2021-05-26-091008-www-spaceweather-gc-ca.png)
source: https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-6-mavg-en.php
-
Here in northwest Oregon we are just starting to receive 10 meter FM openings to Asia, although I have had numerous CW and SSB contacts for the past year to Japan, Guam, Ogasawara Island, ZL, VK, KH6, FK8 this past week was the first time that we had solid asia signals on 10 meter FM.
This past sunday another ham and myself in Northwest Oregon heard for the first time non ham intruders which were determined to be North Korean squid fishing boats operating near the asiatic Russian coast, north of Japan, operating on 28.175 and 28.275 MHz FM.
Even though they were not ham stations and probably coming in on multihop sparodic E, it was still interesting listening to these NK fishing boats fading in and out for over 2 hours on 10 meters.
-
We could be in for a cycle better than 19: https://strangesounds.org/2021/06/solar-cycle-25-termination-event-sun-activity.html
-
Solar Ham is has news that says there are large CME's on the far side of the sun and that maybe something to look forward to in the days ahead.
-
updated plots by which we can compare cycle 25 to cycle 24 at this stage
(https://i.postimg.cc/jd7HT5kr/cycle-25-solar-flux-avg-7-18-21.png)
source: https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-6-mavg-en.php
(https://i.postimg.cc/MTghcH08/Opera-Snapshot-2021-07-18-www-swpc-noaa-gov.png)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
-
Update of my Cycle 24 aligned to Cycle 25 graph.
(https://www.w6rz.net/solarflux5.png)
-
That sure looks close, minus a few spikes,
Now
If I could only align dark side of the moon with Wizard of Ozz.
thats a joke, not meaning to take anything from your post!
-
updated view comparing solar cycles 24 to 25 and comparing 25 actual to 25 predicted...
(https://i.postimg.cc/13L36qb9/6-FDDBB47-8-DFB-4-ED5-93-AD-CB7-D03-F2695-C.png)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression (https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression)
(https://i.postimg.cc/mkM0vP8S/317-E41-FA-3-BCA-4768-8-FAC-94-B0-D9-CD1-CDD.png)
source: https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-6-mavg-en.php (https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-6-mavg-en.php)
-
solar ham now has a nice direct link to cycle 25 progression, see:
https://www.solarham.net/progression.htm (https://www.solarham.net/progression.htm)
(https://i.postimg.cc/Prmt5JZY/16-A5680-A-5-CF2-47-B2-A395-46-B7-F5-ED3-E9-A.jpg)
-
KE0OG, the new technical columnist for QST magazine, has an excellent video out on propagation you might interesting....
GL/73
-
cycle 25 seems to be continuing to outperform the less-than-exciting predicted curve(s)
(https://i.postimg.cc/W3M5x7yq/5-B07-DEA2-E8-B6-4-FB9-B727-51617-C051-A45.jpg)
source: https://www.solarham.net/progression.htm
(https://i.postimg.cc/ZqmBVF6M/3-A6-C3236-5-ED8-4-C51-861-A-317-F05-A4-BC7-D.jpg)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
-
so far at least, cycle 25 continues to outperform the less-than-exciting predicted curve --
(https://i.postimg.cc/TPLHbgRH/006764-C6-7-A30-4-E5-C-ADAF-73-C4-D9-B851-BD.jpg)
source: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
-
"it is nice to see both northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere sunspots continually forming at the same time. The previous Cycle 24 was quite out of sync with northern hemisphere spots peaking well before the south. If this current trend continues, it could lead towards what many are hoping, a stronger than expected Cycle 25. So far the numbers are promising." -- Solar Ham Website
(https://i.postimg.cc/KcfR2thg/Sunspot-Numbers-1-13-2022.png)
-
unless I am talking over my head, so far cycle 25 continues to exceed predictions --
(https://i.postimg.cc/fRrqrpg8/F33-A96-F0-88-F1-4-AF0-9649-A886-C9037184.jpg)
-
Cycle 25 continues to exceed predicted values:
(https://i.postimg.cc/85q2GBfq/Opera-Snapshot-2022-03-02-231108-www-solarham-net.png)
source: https://www.solarham.net/progression.htm (https://www.solarham.net/progression.htm)
-
Don't worry, when you see the sun it's always over your head.
:)
Hopefully the trend continues to exceed expectations.
-
Don't worry, when you see the sun it's always over your head.
:)
:D
Hopefully the trend continues to exceed expectations.
it sure seems to be continuing and that is appreciated! i have always dreamed of seeing a 1958 like solar peak, but after the somewhat gloomy predictions for cycle 25 anything decent will be most welcome :)
-
(https://i.postimg.cc/NF9TJd6W/SOLAR-CYCLE-25-PIC4-7-22.png)
-
Solar flux graph wasn't populating yesterday; today it is (cycle 25 actual still exceeding predicted) --
(https://i.postimg.cc/jSPzF94H/228516-D3-12-CE-49-CB-BD9-B-73814-EBFA7-A4.jpg)
-
8) Cycle 25 continues to significantly outperform the lackluster predictions that were forecast just a few years ago 8)
- - - -
Wow! Sunspot numbers up, geomagnetic disturbances down. What could be better? Okay, maybe Solar Cycle 19, but that was 66 years ago and by far the all time largest.
But this is now, we are in Solar Cycle 25, and this sunspot cycle is emerging better than the consensus forecast. It is predicted to peak about 30 months from now in Summer 2025.
Solar cycles tend to ramp up faster than they decline, so we look forward to great HF propagation for years to come.
- - - -
(https://i.postimg.cc/bNFVdpLv/SOLAR-CYCLE-25-chart1-23.png)
(https://i.postimg.cc/mDfgsvKX/SOLAR-CYCLE-25-PIC1-23.png)
-
Today the SFI reached 228 and 6 meters opened between KH6 to China and KH6 to SA.
-
X2.2 Flare earlier today from AR3229, just making its way on the visible disk.
I'll be keeping an eye on 6 m over the next few weeks!
6 m has been pretty well dead here recently in VK apart from the routine Es.