eHam

eHam Forums => Propagation => Topic started by: WA2ONH on July 02, 2022, 09:06:38 AM

Title: ARTICLE: A New method for predicting the 11-year solar cycle strength
Post by: WA2ONH on July 02, 2022, 09:06:38 AM
From the https://phys.org/ site, an Astronomy article entitled ...

A new method for predicting the 11-year solar cycle strength
by Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology - July 1 2022
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-method-year-solar-strength.html

"Scientists from Skoltech and their colleagues from the University of Graz & the Kanzelhöhe Observatory (Austria), Hvar Observatory (Croatia), and the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Center of Excellence—SILSO, Royal Observatory of Belgium presented a new method to predict the strength of the 11-year solar cycle."
.
Title: Re: ARTICLE: A New method for predicting the 11-year solar cycle strength
Post by: W1VT on July 02, 2022, 09:14:41 AM
They are predicting Cycle 25 to be at least as good as the last one.
I was able to work 250 entities on both 10 and 12 meters during Cycle 24.
Title: Re: ARTICLE: A New method for predicting the 11-year solar cycle strength
Post by: K4FMH on July 03, 2022, 11:35:22 AM
I read the original published article in addition to the news release. The method is linking the growth rate of SSs to a subsequent cycle’s amplitude. This is prediction without explanation, not much of an advance. Scott McIntosh and I discuss the fallacies of this “teleology” in the cover story of this month’s RadCom magazine.

Frank
K4FMH
Title: Re: ARTICLE: A New method for predicting the 11-year solar cycle strength
Post by: KH6AQ on July 04, 2022, 05:22:27 PM
The July, 2022 RadCom magazine cover is here:  Solar Cycle 25 – A controversial theory regarding sunspot
predictions

On the cusp of a scientific revolution? Frank Howell, K4FMH and Scott McIntosh 36

https://rsgb.org/main/blog/publications/radcom/2022/06/20/radcom-july-2022-vol-98-no-7/