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Author Topic: Help me understand today's prop numbers?  (Read 13224 times)
KC4ZGP
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Posts: 1637




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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2017, 06:52:56 AM »


Ten four to that.

Wind is blowing. Rain is falling. Hurricane-smurricane.

Kraus


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N3II
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Posts: 12




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« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2017, 06:43:50 PM »

Sunday's flare had interesting (read, devastating) effects on Summits-On-The-Air operations. On-summit operators commonly are qrp. I was in the Appalachians and operating just fine with 5W and CW on a first summit at/around 1300Z. But I got to the second summit around 1600Z - just as the x-flare hit, as I later found out - and was greeted with near total silence on the four bands my rig handles (40-30-20-15). I'm not the most experienced ham in the world, but I've never experienced such a total wipe out. (At least the weather for the hike couldn't have been better!)

Two questions for the more experienced operators who understand solar phenomena better than I:

(1) how predictable was that flare? Could I have known before I set out for the hills that morning that something like this would happen, or be likely to happen. Or is this just one of those things that happens when you least expect it.

(2) is there an HF band that can work around a flare like that ... would I have had better prospects with 80m ... or 6m?

Tnx, David/N3II
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AA6YQ
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Posts: 2668


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« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2017, 06:45:18 PM »


Ain't no point understanding the stuff.

Any halfway-successful contester or DXer would strongly disagree with you.
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VA3VF
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« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2017, 06:48:04 PM »


(1) how predictable was that flare? Could I have known before I set out for the hills that morning that something like this would happen, or be likely to happen. Or is this just one of those things that happens when you least expect it.

Tnx, David/N3II

There is no way to predict a flare, but it takes a few days for the effects to hit earth. So, if you follow the solar activity bulletins, you'll know about the flare, and can count/plan for the effects a few days later.
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AA6YQ
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« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2017, 06:58:17 PM »


(1) how predictable was that flare? Could I have known before I set out for the hills that morning that something like this would happen, or be likely to happen. Or is this just one of those things that happens when you least expect it.

Tnx, David/N3II

There is no way to predict a flare, but it takes a few days for the effects to hit earth. So, if you follow the solar activity bulletins, you'll know about the flare, and can count/plan for the effects a few days later.

Sunday's flare came from the same unusually large (for this part of the solar cycle) groups of sunspots responsible for the SFI spike (to 188!) and geomagnetic storming earlier in the week. Until these groups rotated off the sun's earth-facing hemisphere, there was an increased chance of flares and other geomagnetic disruption. So while not predictable, Sunday's flare was not surprising.

The culprits:

« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 07:08:38 PM by AA6YQ » Logged
KM4DYX
Member

Posts: 63




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« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2017, 07:05:58 PM »


(2) is there an HF band that can work around a flare like that ... would I have had better prospects with 80m ... or 6m?

Tnx, David/N3II

Check the D Region Absorption graphic at this link; we were at HF blackout on that day, all over NA. If I could easily post pictures I could show you what it looked like then.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap

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