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Author Topic: Good Read on Current Solar Cycle  (Read 3943 times)
KM4DYX
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Posts: 63




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« on: October 09, 2017, 04:52:57 AM »

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/10/08/weak-solar-cycle-continues-the-sun-is-spotless-again/

73,
Al
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AC7CW
Member

Posts: 1014




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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2017, 01:24:53 PM »

Some of that is over my head while some more of it is WAY over my head.

Predictors of solar activity are up against the same problem as people that try to predict stock prices by looking at charts of past activity: there really aren't any guarantees.

I like the idea of Automatic Link Establishment. It closes the loop around all the propagation variables.
« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 01:29:28 PM by AC7CW » Logged

Novice 1958, 20WPM Extra now... (and get off my lawn)
KM4DYX
Member

Posts: 63




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« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2017, 05:01:54 PM »


I like the idea of Automatic Link Establishment. It closes the loop around all the propagation variables.

I've been trying to get smarter on ALE. I can see some EMCOMM, government, and military application, but also some downside.

On the military side, I would think that hourly soundings could be problematic in a high threat EW environment.

I'm not sure where ALE fits in for Ham operating. Maybe ALE can integrated with the Winlink for EMCOMM?

73,
Al
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AC7CW
Member

Posts: 1014




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« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2017, 08:19:51 PM »


I like the idea of Automatic Link Establishment. It closes the loop around all the propagation variables.

I've been trying to get smarter on ALE. I can see some EMCOMM, government, and military application, but also some downside.

On the military side, I would think that hourly soundings could be problematic in a high threat EW environment.

I'm not sure where ALE fits in for Ham operating. Maybe ALE can integrated with the Winlink for EMCOMM?

73,
Al


I've not run it but I'm buying a radio that is compatible with the software at hflink.com. It was more useful before digital modes for making contacts at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. I guess it would still be fun for ssb/cw and it might make the diff during emergencies.

Propagation can be very strange at times. A friend, located in Altadena CA, was the only op that could hear a transmission from a hospital in New Orleans after Katrina. He knew everything about emcomm/Red Cross and knew who to contact!
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Novice 1958, 20WPM Extra now... (and get off my lawn)
M0HDX
Member

Posts: 51




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« Reply #4 on: Yesterday at 03:43:02 AM »

How Can Scientists Predict the next solar cycle When They Can’t even Get the Weather Right from one day to the next.

jim M0HDX

 

 

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WA2ONH
Member

Posts: 407




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« Reply #5 on: Yesterday at 09:43:40 AM »

Well, who is the author of this article with such nice graphs and locked in conclusions - David Archibald.

Doing a Google search we find that ...

https://www.heartland.org/about-us/who-we-are/david-archibald
"David Archibald is a scientist operating in the fields of cancer research, climate science, and oil exploration.

David Archibald is a scientist operating in the fields of cancer research, climate science, and oil exploration. In the cancer field, trials on a formulation he invented with professors from Purdue University, Indiana are currently underway at Queensland University. In oil exploration, he is operator of a number of exploration permits in the Canning Basin, Western Australia."


https://skepticalscience.com/david-archibald-exaggerates-solar-influence-on-future-climate-change.html
"David Archibald Exaggerates the Solar Influence on Future Climate Change
David Archibald is a climate "skeptic" who has been CEO of multiple oil and mineral exploration companies operating in Australia, and currently is part of the scientific advisory panel for the Australian Climate Science Coalition (ACSC) - a group of Australian fake skeptics.

Archibald is a major proponent of the "it's the sun" myth, and from time to time will publish a paper in Energy&Environment (the controversial journal which publishes "skeptic" research which is too erroneous to meet the standards in standard peer-reviewed journals), claiming that a decline in solar activity will lead to substantial cooling over the next few decades."


Also author of two books: "The solution to the F-35 (Jet fighter plane) nightmare" and "Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short" in which "Archibald combines pioneering science with keen economic knowledge to predict the global disasters that could destroy civilization as we know it—disasters that are waiting just around the corner."

And there's more of the above, but, I see nothing that speaks of his knowledge concerning Propagation and Sun Spots. So, let him first predict tomorrow's weather and see if he gets that right!
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73 de WA2ONH   ... Charlie
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"There is no shame in not knowing; The shame lies in not finding out"
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