Call Search
     

New to Ham Radio?
My Profile

Community
Articles
Forums
News
Reviews
Friends Remembered
Strays
Survey Question

Operating
Contesting
DX Cluster Spots
Propagation

Resources
Calendar
Classifieds
Ham Exams
Ham Links
List Archives
News Articles
Product Reviews
QSL Managers

Site Info
eHam Help (FAQ)
Support the site
The eHam Team
Advertising Info
Vision Statement
About eHam.net

donate to eham
   Home   Help Search  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Solar Cycle bottom ahead of sked?  (Read 2438 times)
NU1O
Member

Posts: 4567




Ignore
« on: January 29, 2018, 10:55:33 AM »

Solar activity cycle falls to the bottom 1.5 years earlier than expected.

https://watchers.news/2017/12/20/solar-activity-cycle-falls-to-the-bottom-1-5-years-earlier-than-expected/

73,

Chris  NU1O
Logged
LA7DFA
Member

Posts: 82




Ignore
« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2018, 11:28:25 AM »

Here is another prediction: http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

http://www.leif.org/research/Comparing-HMI-WSO-Polar-Fields.pdf
Logged
W6UV
Member

Posts: 1078




Ignore
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2018, 02:28:27 PM »

The first sunspot of Cycle 25 was seen over a year ago in December 2016, so perhaps Cycle 24 is hitting bottom early. Let's hope Cycle 25 rises fast and reaches a peak much higher than the present cycle.

http://www.stce.be/node/359
Logged
K6UJ
Member

Posts: 1296




Ignore
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2018, 07:54:24 PM »

The first sunspot of Cycle 25 was seen over a year ago in December 2016, so perhaps Cycle 24 is hitting bottom early. Let's hope Cycle 25 rises fast and reaches a peak much higher than the present cycle.

http://www.stce.be/node/359


So Cycle 24 is bottoming out early and may indicate that cycle 25 will rise fast and reach a much higher peak than before.  I like it, I'm going with this theory !   

Bob
K6UJ
Logged
N3QE
Member

Posts: 5491




Ignore
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2018, 04:08:25 AM »

One thing is for certain: there is no stopping the solar cycle; the Early Solar Minimum is already here. And I for one welcome our new Early Solar Minimum overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a trusted low-band personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their swamps laying out beverages and 8-circles.
Logged
N5UD
Member

Posts: 1478




Ignore
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2018, 08:02:59 AM »

I read all the links, and links referred to in the stories. I read ideas about cosmic forces going through the stars. It seems we humans know little about forecasting cycle 25.

Since being a shortwave radio user since 1963 or so. My uncle was a ham since the 50's. Cycle 24 was the weakest in my life. I hope for better out of cycle 25, but not expecting it. However it develops. I will just have to deal with it.

73 and good dxing
Logged
AB8MA
Member

Posts: 1204




Ignore
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2018, 08:16:12 AM »

Whatever cycle 25 brings had got to be better than SFI: 68
Logged
N3QE
Member

Posts: 5491




Ignore
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2018, 08:19:29 AM »

Whatever cycle 25 brings had got to be better than SFI: 68

Conditions were SUPERB in ARRL 160M in December 2017 and on first night of CQ 160 CW this past weekend.
Logged
K4HB
Member

Posts: 427




Ignore
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2018, 10:31:31 AM »

I don't believe our best scientists know when the current cycle will bottom out, when the next one will begin, and what the numbers will be once Cycle 25 is underway. Those who predict the weather on earth have more data to work with than those who predict solar weather, and those guys are not always correct. They do a great job, but predicting the weather is not an exact science, and predicting a sunspot cycle yet to come involves too much guess work. Solar scientists can make an educated guess based on current data, history, or whatever, but we won't know until we are there.

This was Dr Hathaway's model for Cycle 24 which was made in 2007. We now know that didn't happen. Cycle 24 was late getting started, and it's ending later than first predicted. And we really could have used those numbers. Once Cycle 24 was underway, he acknowledged his 1st model was incorrect and made a new model that was more realistic to the actual cycle. As I recall, Dr Hathaway predicted Cycle 23 fairly well. I have the greatest respect and admiration for all solar scientists, but they are not always correct.



As for the current situation, we can enjoy some good 80 & 160 meter openings. My best years for 160M were during the time Cycle 23 was bottoming out. And those were also my best years for 6M. Not for F layer propagation, but had some good Es and TEP openings.

Logged

Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.11 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!