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Author Topic: New Cycle  (Read 1660 times)
KC2TRX
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Posts: 46




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« on: April 16, 2019, 02:23:40 AM »

  The latest prediction is that the next cycle, number 25, will begin in October.  Does the upswing happen faster than the decline?
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AE5GT
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Posts: 385




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« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2019, 07:25:13 AM »

I think so , but I would not expect a significant change before late 2021. and a couple years after that before things really start to heat up . The last prediction I have seen says the 25 will be a repeat of 24. 24 bottomed around 08 so we should bottom this year or early 2020 and then 12 to 18 months after that things should  improve a little at least enough to get 15M open some and 10 M to EU occassionally. Until then were pretty much stuck with Transequatorial ( north south) propagation on the upper  bands. Or sporadic E.
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K0UA
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« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2019, 06:57:39 PM »

Lets all hope for a really good Es season coming up in about a month and thru the summer.  I personally am hoping for some triple hop!..
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N4UE
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Posts: 865




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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2019, 01:32:08 PM »

Hi. Yep, I started checking 10M and 6M a couple of days ago. Yesterday, I heard NOTHING on 10M, but surprise, heard some (kinda) DX on 11M.
I guess the old saying is true....

"If everyone is listening, you won't hear anything".

Guilty as charged. I made no CQs,,,, Angry

ron
N4UE
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If you're not the lead sled dog, the view never changes......
KC6RWI
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Posts: 130




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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2019, 09:19:13 AM »

Here I go with some old guy stuff, but in the 70's I'd have a base station on 10 meters, and dozens of stations would bubble up. All sorts of conditions in a  strong dynamic mode. In the mobile driving to work the band was dead, and on the drive  2 stations would come up talking to each other not realizing that conditions had changed.
The water and power service trucks had  low band radios, and they would get skip and try to reply, but no, they where probably on a repeater system.
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ONAIR
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Posts: 3716




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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2019, 06:29:47 PM »

Hi. Yep, I started checking 10M and 6M a couple of days ago. Yesterday, I heard NOTHING on 10M, but surprise, heard some (kinda) DX on 11M.
I guess the old saying is true....

"If everyone is listening, you won't hear anything".

Guilty as charged. I made no CQs,,,, Angry

ron
N4UE
   Good point!  But unfortunately there area lot more CBers on 11 meters than there are hams on 10.
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K2FW
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Posts: 210




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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2019, 06:31:27 PM »

https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-sun-activity-in-solar-cycle

April 5, 2019 - Scientists charged with predicting the Sun’s activity for the next 11-year solar cycle say that it’s likely to be weak, much like the current one. The current solar cycle, Cycle 24, is declining and predicted to reach solar minimum - the period when the Sun is least active - late in 2019 or 2020.

Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026, and a sunspot range of 95 to 130. This is well below the average number of sunspots, which typically ranges from 140 to 220 sunspots per solar cycle. The panel has high confidence that the coming cycle should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen over the past four cycles.

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. “The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24   means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”

The solar cycle prediction gives a rough idea of the frequency of space weather storms of all types, from radio blackouts to geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms. It is used by many industries to gauge the potential impact of space weather in the coming years. Space weather can affect power grids, critical military, airline, and shipping communications, satellites and Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, and can even threaten astronauts by exposure to harmful radiation doses.

Solar Cycle 24 reached its maximum - the period when the Sun is most active - in April 2014 with a peak average of 82 sunspots. The Sun’s Northern Hemisphere led the sunspot cycle, peaking over two years ahead of the Southern Hemisphere sunspot peak.

While daily weather forecasts are the most widely used type of scientific information in the U.S., solar forecasting is relatively new. Given that the Sun takes 11 years to complete one solar cycle, this is only the fourth time a solar cycle prediction has been issued by U.S. scientists. The first panel convened in 1989 for Cycle 22.

For Solar Cycle 25, the panel hopes for the first time to predict the presence, amplitude, and timing of any differences between the northern and southern hemispheres on the Sun, known as Hemispheric Asymmetry. Later this year, the Panel will release an official Sunspot Number curve which shows the predicted number of sunspots during any given year and any expected asymmetry. The panel will also look into the possibility of providing a Solar Flare Probability Forecast.

“While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the sun can occur at any time,” said Doug Biesecker, Ph.D., panel co-chair and a solar physicist at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

An example of this occurred on July 23, 2012 when a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) eruption missed the Earth but enveloped NASA’s STEREO-A satellite. A 2013 study estimated that the U.S. would have suffered between $600 billion and $2.6 trillion in damages, particularly to electrical infrastructure, such as power grid, if this CME had been directed toward Earth. The strength of the 2012 eruption was comparable to the famous 1859 Carrington event that caused widespread damage to telegraph stations around the world and produced aurora displays as far south as the Caribbean.

The Solar Cycle Prediction Panel forecasts the number of sunspots expected for solar maximum, along with the timing of the peak and minimum solar activity levels for the cycle. It is comprised of scientists representing NOAA, NASA, the International Space Environment Services, and other U.S. and international scientists. The outlook was presented on April 5 at the 2019 NOAA Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colo.
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AC7CW
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Posts: 1322




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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2019, 09:42:24 PM »

It's comforting to hear from scientists but I wonder how much of Solar science is biased by views on Climate Change? The planets all warm and cool in lockstep with solar activity. Some political bodies might have their fingers crossed in hopes that the sun becomes active enough so they can forward their agenda. They tend to fund scientists that give them the "right" results.

Martin Armstrong's computer says we are headed into prolonged cooling and imo that would be the result of reduced action from the sun. I listen to Martin and essentially nobody else at all. His computer program has opposed prevailing groupthink and experts and been so spectacularly right at times. Time will tell. I'd rather the sunspots because they make HF fun but if not, the hobby will still be rewarding.
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Novice 1958, 20WPM Extra now... (and get off my lawn)
N8FVJ
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Posts: 820




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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2019, 05:27:47 PM »

20 meters was open till 10pm EST a few days ago. Perhaps summer ionization?
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W1VT
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Posts: 3188




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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2019, 07:24:57 PM »

https://youtu.be/hKDyUd1RC5Q
Our Sun Dims After Storming: Solar Storm Forecast 05-23-2019
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VK6IS
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Posts: 355




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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2019, 07:58:26 AM »

so it's still getting predicted:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7107857/Have-reached-solar-minimum-sun-without-spots-16-consecutive-days.html
and it could lead to magnetic storms that interrupt air travel, satellites and power grids ?
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WB6BYU
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Posts: 18278




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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2019, 07:57:57 PM »

Only 16 days?  I thought we went months without sunspots at the bottom of the last cycle. 
I seem to remember that it was around a year and a half where we regularly had days with
no sunspots, even if there were occasional bursts now and then.
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W6RZ
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Posts: 355




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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2019, 01:00:46 AM »

Only 16 days?  I thought we went months without sunspots at the bottom of the last cycle. 
I seem to remember that it was around a year and a half where we regularly had days with
no sunspots, even if there were occasional bursts now and then.

The last bottom was definitely worse than this one. Here's a couple of plots to compare.



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